The future of the future country (Part I)

Written on Monday, January 4th, 2010 at 5:04 am by ethioforum

Prof. Al MariamBy Alemayehu G. Mariam | 4 January 2010

Looking Through the Glass, Brightly

“Ethiopia is the country of the future,” Birtukan Midekssa would often say epigrammatically. Ethiopia’s No. 1 political prisoner is always preoccupied with her country’s future and destiny. Her deep concern for Ethiopia is exceeded only by her boundless optimism for its future. For that reason, her maxim echoes not only a manifest general truth, but also makes a profound and complex historical argument that calls for a paradigm shift in the way we understand contemporary Ethiopian politics and envision the future.

To be the country of the future necessarily means not being the country of the past. Birtukan’s Ethiopia of the future is necessarily the categorical antitheses of an imperial autocracy, a military bureaucracy and a dictatorship of kleptocracy. Her vision of the future Ethiopia is a unified country built on a steel platform of multiparty democracy. Birtukan would have been pleased to explain her vision and dreams of the future country of Ethiopia; unfortunately, she can not speak for herself as she has been condemned to “rot” in jail.

As we begin the second decade of the 21st Century, it is important for the rest of us to carry on the conversation that Birtukan has so insightfully sparked. She is concerned about Ethiopia’s future because she understands that a nation without a clear sense of its future is a nation without a destiny, and one doomed to suffer the scourges of tyranny and oppression. When Birtukan speaks of Ethiopia as the country of the future, she speaks of it in the same way as Dr. Martin Luther King spoke of his American dream. He dreamt that one day in the future, America “will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed… that all men (and women) are created equal.” He dreamt that Americans, despite their bitter history of oppression and injustice, “will be able to sit down together at a table of brotherhood” and resolve their differences amicably and peacefully. Above all, he dreamt of a future where his “four children will live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.”

Birtukan also has a dream that one day Ethiopians will sit together at the table of brotherhood and sisterhood to discuss their historic grievances and current issues, atone for and forgive each other for past transgressions, and in a renewed spirit of reconciliation, compromise and accommodation, forge a common destiny. She dreams of the day when her 4-year old daughter and the millions of children in Ethiopia will grow up in a country where they are judged not by their ethnicity, tribal affiliation, gender, language, religion, region or wealth, but by their abilities and the content of their character. She dreams of a just and moral society.

Fully accepting and working towards such a future for Ethiopia may sound naïve and idealistic to some given the present grim state of affairs. If the trend projections of the doomsday soothsayers are to be believed, in Ethiopia’s future, there is no future. The scientists tell us that Ethiopia will prove to be a poster child for “environmental determinism” in 40 years. It’s population will double to 150 million by 2050; and overpopulation, coupled with large and growing per capita resource consumption and negative environmental impact will trigger a complete collapse of the society by the middle of the century. These scientists point to evidence of large-scale deforestation and habitat destruction, soil degradation, decline in potable water supply and water pollution, overgrazing, desertification and so on as the unmistakable present warning signals of future collapse.

The agricultural experts express shock and dismay in the sale and lease of millions of hectares of land to foreign corporations who are set on producing food for export back to their home countries while Ethiopians are dying of massive starvation and famines (officially known in the politically correct phrase “severe food shortages”). The economists paint an equally dire picture of a country overburdened by debt to international lenders and a local economy in the chokehold of businesses closely allied with the ruling regime, and whose principal capitalization is derived from conversion of previously government-owned properties through a bogus privatization process. With land and key sectors of the economy such as telecommunications under the control or ownership of the regime or its supporters, without a functional financial services sector and youth unemployment in excess of 70 percent, the practitioners of the “dismal science” predict a dismal economic future for Ethiopia.

There are even those who predict political implosion long before systemic collapse. A research group with expertise in international crises analysis recently sounded the alarm over “the potential for a violent eruption of conflict in Ethiopia ahead of the May 2010 elections amidst rising ethnic tensions and dissent.” The international human rights groups and organizations who have extensively documented the regime’s sustained pattern of crackdowns on dissent, criminalization of civil society groups, persecution of the independent media, election rigging and theft, massive rights violations and implementation of repressive decrees consign Ethiopia to the scrapheap of the most hopeless and wretched nations on the planet. If we are to believe the doomsday soothsayers, Ethiopia is presently in critical triage on life support. They peg her survival without complete societal collapse and political implosion in the first half of the 21st century at much less than 50 per cent.

We must categorically reject the dark predictions of the naysayers and the merchants of doom and gloom. The future of Ethiopia is in the hands, hearts and minds of its people, not in the tea leaves read by the experts. As John M. Richardson, Jr. said, “When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who make things happen, those who let it happen, and those who wonder what happened.” Birtukan belongs in the first category. Because of the enormous sacrifices she has made, she rightly deserves to be called a future maker, as anyone who chooses to join her in her quest for a better future in Ethiopia would be. What makes Birtukan unique is that she understands that if we do not work together actively to shape the future, the past will assuredly shape it for us. Only when the future makers put their shoulders to the grindstone and do the heavy lifting can we prove the experts wrong and guarantee that Ethiopia’s best days are yet to come.

The future of the future country will be decided in a battle between the “future makers” and “future takers”. We are witnesses to the handiwork of the future takers today. They have taken everything in the present — the rights of the people, their dignity, their daily bread, their land, their hopes and their dreams — so that there will be no future. They calculate the future to be a continuation of the past, and they will do everything in their power to perpetuate the past into the future. Future takers worship at the altar of greed and corruption; and for them fairness, decency, generosity and morality are anathema. The battle between the future makers and future takers will be waged and decided in the hearts and minds of the people. The future takers will wage a war of tears and fears. The future makers will fight back with hope, faith, charity and love.

We should reject the static and deterministic outcomes predicted by the experts because their assumptions about Ethiopia are fundamentally incorrect. Their analytical models are predicated on a flawed postulate that Ethiopians are fundamentally a weak and desperate people who are passive objects of oppression, charity and pity. We must reject out of hand, and without hesitation, any argument that suggests Ethiopia’s future will be sealed in ethnic fragmentation, political dissolution and national self-destruction. We must cast aside any theory that predicts the systemic collapse and the end of a nation whose history dates back 3000 years. We have been a nation of survivors. We have survived and prevailed over the plague of European colonialism when nearly all of Africa succumbed to it. We have survived recurrent famines of Biblical proportion. We have endured conflicts and wars. We have survived autocracy, despotism and kleptocracy. Let there be no doubt: We will survive until the end of time because we are the “masters of our fate” and the “captains of our destiny”.

Philosophers and historians speak of a recurrent cycle in human events. Great nations rise and fall. Governments come and go. Leaders change and are replaced. But nations survive because each generation accepts its responsibilities and forges ahead with the enormous tasks of future-building. When Birtukan says Ethiopia is the country of the future, she means to say that this generation of Ethiopians has a rendezvous with destiny. Whether Ethiopia will self-destruct in ethnic fragmentation and strife is not carved in stone. This generation can avert that dark future by working for and promoting ethnic diversity and national unity. A new generation of statesmen and stateswomen could trump the political expediency and machination of those desperately clinging to power. Whether Ethiopia is doomed to ecological collapse is not determined by the inexorable forces of global warming. Carefully planning and prioritization of societal needs, implementation of creative policies, public awareness, education and mobilization could help steer away the Ethiopian nation from the dangerous shoals of ecological calamity.

The future requires responsibility, creativity, endurance and sacrifice. It can not be left to a few leaders, politicians, intellectuals or experts. If there is one thing to be learned from the recent past, it is that the Ethiopian people know what kind of a future they want. Their verdict in the 2005 elections stands as a final testament for a genuine multiparty democracy. History is also on the side of freedom and the youth. Despite all the setbacks of recent years, the values of democracy, freedom and human rights have taken deep root in the psyche of Ethiopian youth. They will be leading the forward march of Ethiopia into a glorious future. With Ethiopia’s future in the hands of her young people, we have cause to be confident and even to celebrate. Let our youth learn from a wise African saying: “Tomorrow belongs to the (young) people who prepare for it today.”

“The Future of the Future Country” is a special commentary to be offered in periodic serialized future segments by the author.

Alemayehu G. Mariam, is a professor of political science at California State University, San Bernardino, and an attorney based in Los Angeles. He writes a regular blog on The Huffington Post, and his commentaries appear regularly on Pambazuka News and New American Media.

Related post:

  • Happy Mother’s Day, Birtukan!
  • Reinventing Ethiopian politics (Part II)
  • Woyane breaks UN Somali arms ban
  • 26 Responses to “The future of the future country (Part I)”

    1. seifu Says:

      http://eppfonline.org/index/?p=312

    2. barnet yekume!!!! Says:

      ቁዋንቁዋ ታላቅ ነው !ምንድነው እንዲህ መተርተር ባጭር ሃሳብ መግለጽ ምሁርንት አይደለም ያለው ማንው? አለማይሁ ተረጋጋና ባጭሩ ሃሳብሀን ግልጽ.ጥሩ የእንግሊዝ ባርያ ላገሩ አይበጅምና ፈዛዛ ባርያ አይሆኑ.ቁዋንቁ
      ዋዎትን ብያቁ ትልቅ ነበሩና !!!!

    3. aha! Says:

      Who are these future takers and future makers and future takers in terms of existing political parties/factions: TPLF/eprdf regime, Tigrai Harena/FDD, KAEUP, EPRP (not a party running for election), and others with positive forces of integration in line with KAEUP and on the front for armed struggle Ginbot 7, EPPF, and TPDM for freedom and democracy of the silent majority of Ethiopians, if conducted within Ethiopia in collaboration with the positve forces of integration not to take power but to maintain law and order for the parties running for election.

      Having said said that I have never read an emotional essay from Prof. Al G. Mariam starting from day one on his entourage of K-5, that the fate of the silent majority of Ethiopians, leaving out the teletafi parties, the loyalist opposition and UDJP wearing two hats: one for ethnic and another for national agenda out of the equation to be placed in the hands of one person, W/T Birtukan Mideksa, when her party is mired with internal management problem and conflict over joining Medrek and over partipating or not participating in the in the 2010 election. Is this a scenario that addresses the goals for Unity, Territorial Integrity, Sovereignity of Ethiopia and Ethiopians or does the future takers and future makers equate to the negative forces of disintegration and the positive forces of integration, respectively?

    4. henok Says:

      The TPLF Regime’s Ploy Of Dividing, Weakening And Sowing Seeds of Division Among The Ethiopian People Is A Capital Strategic Error: President Isaias
      http://www.shabait3.com/news/local-news/805-president-

    5. Azeb Says:

      Aha,

      I do not know what you mean by silent majority. I am sure that the silent majority does not stand with your political party (AAPO). I also hope that you do not assume that readers of this web page that gullible to understand your poltical direction. To be honest with you, Ethiopian poltics is so complicated that no one party can galvanize the majority at a get go and bring peace to the country. The split of AAPO from UDJP is telling more about AAPO’s position than that of UDJP. AAPO is mired with nostralgia of the yester year and I can assure you that there is no place for that nostalgia in todays ETHIOPIA. You cannot use unity as the only criteria to come around a working poltical solution. Don’t spend your time preaching about unity when you are trying your best to side line a large part of the Ethiopian people, lest you will be left with a hollow barrel of unity.

    6. mezmur Says:

      Dear Almariam,

      you want spend this year again just writing articles or would rather change your strategy of struggle to some action?
      what about Lobby action with UN, Obama administration or senators etc…?

    7. kume Says:

      New time requires new leadership. We all know, EPRDF and TPLF at the core of it are stak with the old mentality of ethnocentric ideology. Birtukan idealizes a unified strong Ethiopia. Who could resister her but to submit to her inspiration for political vision for all us.

    8. T.Goshu Says:

      Appreciation to Professor A.G/Mariam for your relentless and detailed articles on various and critical issues of our country.

      Dear Professor, while extending my admiration, I would like to comment that our discussions have to strongly and extensively geared to the question of mechanisms and strategies that are required to get out of the general crisis ( economic, political,social and moral) we are suffering from. I am well aware that a well- defined and analyzed problem is an extremely important portion ( halve of the solution) for our successful resolution. I do believe that the main reason for our failure is neither the strength of the tyrant regime nor the incapability of the opposition groups to comprehend the incredible challenges this generation faces. In my view, I do believe that the miserable situation in our country is self evident. It does not need deep and extensive analytical work. Because it is part of the day- to -day lives of the people. We need to hammer out the very reason why those intellectuals, whether they belong to opposition political parties or engaged in any other field of activities are power houses of all kids of rhetoric,not power houses of action. That is why it is safe to say that educated citizens of Ethiopia have to have the moral courage to take responsibilities for contributing to the continuation of horrible lives of the innocent people. We have been taught by prominent academics that education is an instrument against catastrophe.Sadly enough, this golden declaration could not be applied to reverse the age-old catastrophic situation in our country.

      Dear professor, I hope many of other “silent intellectuals”will join you and will come up with interesting responses for a big and critical question:What is to be done? And what are their obligations,at least in the sense of morality??

      Cher yaseman! Cher yasayen!

    9. BIRTU/CAN Says:

      Ato Alemayehu tried to draw a rosy picture of future Ethiopia,but the fact on the ground doesn’t support his assertions. If the trend continues as is, there will be no Ethiopia in the near future, period. Ethiopia lacks visionary leaders who can outsmart Woyane and guide her in the right direction. The people of Ethiopia have become zombies–sleep walking through atrocities like it is god’s gift that they can never argue about. Woyane is destroying Ethiopia. It would be a waste of time to explain how. If we can’t fight with passion and stop Woyane on its track—how could we resurrect Ethiopia from its ashes? Once the fat lady sings and Woyane throws the knockout punch—wouldn’t it be wishful thinking to talk about a future Ethiopia? Sombody better come up with a “game changer” plan before it is too late. or else, the present Ethiopia will disintegrate before our own eyes.

      FREE BIRTUKAN!!

    10. Anbese Says:

      barnet yekume,
      ግብረገብ ካልኖሮት የሚያከብሮት እንደሌለና የሚያዋርዶት እንዳለ አያውቁምን? እንግሊዝኛ ቋንቋም ሆነ ሌላ የውጭ ሃገር ቋንቋ በተለይም የምእራባውያን ለሃገራችን ስልጣኔ ያደረገውና እያደረገ ያለው አስተዋጽኦ ለእርስዎ ስላልታዮት: አመለካከትዎን የሕሊና ባርነት ውስጥ ወይም የበታችነት ስሜት(Inferiority complex) ውስጥ እየተንቀዋለሉ ስለሆነ ኢትዮጵያዊ ግብረገብነት ጠፋብዎትና አልስፈላጊ ነገር ውስጥ ገብተዋልና::
      እባክዎ ፕሮፌሰር አለማየሁ ገብረማርያም: በአማርኛ ቋንቋም ጭምር ያስተምሩን ብሎ መጠየቅ ማንን ገደለ? ማንንስ ወደባርነት ሕሊና ውስጥ ጨመረ? በውጭ ሃገር ቋንቋ መናገርና መጻፍ ባርነት ነው ያለው ማነው? የእርስዎ ሕሊና ባርነት ውስጥ ስለከተትዎት ካልሆነ በስተቀር?
      በዚህ EMF መወያያ ርእሰ ገጽ ፋሽስት ወያኔዎችንና ሆዳሞችን በአለቃቸው ምላስ ዜናዊ ቋንቋ ሲናገሩንና ኢትዮጵያዊነትን ክደው ትህትና የሚባል ነገር በአእምሮዋቸው ውስጥ ስለሌለ በእትግስት በግብረገብ ስንለማመጣቸው ቆይተን በሚገባቸው በራሳቸው ቋንቋ ሳንፈልግ በግድ እየነገርናቸውና ኢትዮጵያዊ እንዳልሆኑ ተግባራቸውን እያየን ነው::
      EMF እባካችሁ

    11. Ahadu Says:

      Aha

      please dont trash this web side by commenting one rubbish after the other you have to have the country Ethiopia rather than groups or
      party or individual or are you that old to stick only to what you
      think it is right ? Your likes can hurt in the situation now than benefit
      in Ethiopian politics

      God keep ethiopia safe from destractors

    12. aha! Says:

      Ahadu! If you do not like my commentary. Read to Birtukan’s comment. You belong to Diaspora elites as the saying goes “Awko yetegn sew biqesqisut aysemam”. It will be too late before you wake to the realities of the political and economic crises befaaling Ethiopians, because of reactionary zombies like you. I am causing no harm but presenting the situations from a rational and logical point of view. As the saying goes “Komatagn, kalnegerut fetfiche lagures yilal”, so goes the saying. It is upto you to discern from deceptive politics that is prevaing since after the 2005 election by the mirror images of TPLF/eprdf regime.

    13. aha! Says:

      No response to Azeb. You are talking out of context of my remarks in the current article. If you have problem with the APAPO, direct it to them. AAPO, with which you always have a problem, think Ethiopiawinet before their ethnicity, not the otherway around. I never mentioned AAPO in my comment. Why do not you write in defense of the party you are supporting and try to convince the public of its merrit.

    14. tedi Says:

      Aha, what about talking about ? do you think we Ethiopian don’t know AEUP? by the name is all Etyhiopian but prictically is n ot. all AEUp leaders are coming from one village(not ethnic) from north shewa. did read a bout the memebers of this party wrote one the news paper? all the party memeber are coming from other area such that gojjam, Gonder and Wollo are fired . they said why don’t call is North Shewa unity party. UDj are working better than AEUP but it is not enough to get freedom and they have to a void insult each other. and they will boycott the coming fake election of Melese, Hailu, Kidetu and Ayele.

    15. aha! Says:

      Tedi! Nice to hear from you again as frustrated individual with hailu Shawel, Eyasu of EPRP. Of those three party leaders your are still maintaining your dislike for KAEUP. What I did was present KAEUP as one of the parities on the positive forces of integration. With those lists UDJP is not even on the radar screen for me to mention it explicitly but you brought it it up in relation to UDJP. If you realy understand my presentation in a modular context UDJP once florishing right after the split and the formation of the party is absoved in Tigrai Harena/FDD, a newly formed coalition called Medrek/FDD, as the newly teletafi parties. Do not forget UDJ is now wearing two hats as vice chairperson for Medrek and UDJP is from UDJP. The attributes and platform of thses parties is based on ethnic and seccessionist policies created by TPLF/eprdf regime.

      Your statement about UDJP bocotting the election can not be corroborated with facts on the ground you can not even say that for Medrek/FDD. What is the problem with you TPLF/eprdf regime with Northern Shoa, which has been split into two fuzzy boundries both for the city and State of Shoa under ethnic federalism. Is this boundry tenable, let alone the political and economic stranggle hold of the country by TPLF and TPLF affiliated enterprises.

    16. Alama Says:

      Tedi
      I even see more destructive thoughts in you than aha and even woyanne.I wish as an Ethiopian those peoples of your likes to stay
      away from Ethiopian politics ,But as i know that the Ethiopian peoples
      back home and in diasspora are well aware these days about all
      destructive groups be it soldouts and some wolves in the skin of a sheep and some with hidden agendas cos our country is not in a situation to host others than the real freedom fighters.

      God put your eyes on our country and give her protection from evils

    17. ANDENET BERHANE Says:

      ሁሉም የሀገር ተወላጅ ሓላፊነት አለበት እግዚአብሔር ሀገራችንን የሚጠብቃት በንቃት በብቃት ተመልተን በእምነት ጸንተን የሚጠበቅብንን ስንወጣ እንጂ በቀን ሶስት ጊዜ እየበላን ሌላው አንድ ዚዜ መብላት አቅቶት በሶቆቃ እየተፈጀ ያለውን ወገን በችግር አለንጋ በግፍ ጅራፍ የሚቀጣውን በመጀመርያ እንርዳው ያን ግዜ ተገቢውን ማድረጋችን አይቶ ማአቱን ወደ ሰላም አጥፊውን ውደ ግባዓተ መሬቱ ሕዝቦች ሰላምና መረጋጋት ያገኛሉ

    18. aha! Says:

      Alama! I understand Tedi and epressing his thoughts rightfully to disagree with my comments vis a vis his lack of understanding of the broader picture and the realities in the ethnic ans seccessionist politics prevaining in Ethiopia.

      I do not understand your view points except to barge on us. If your alternate point of view, I will know where you stand as a supporter of UDJP and/or Medrek, Ginbot 7, etc. Bring up your view point for a dialogue. My view points all along happen to coincide with the Editorial Comments made on Finote Democracy Radio on December 30,2009. My presentations sofar in relation articles presented each time is to test those idea fit the political model for Unity, Territorial Integrity, Svoreignity of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. I do not know about your level of understanding on the subject, but no political scientist, particularly those who wrote the article have refuted my comments, because they know what I am talking about, from a logical point of view of the positive forces of integration with national agenda against the negative forces of disintegration with ethnic agenda.

      For you to put in the catagory of “Woyane”, not counting Tedi in that catagory as far as I concerened, is baffling to me your level of understanding of inductive logic to problem solving, in this case the political, economic and as the Prof. Alemayehu put in this articl, environmental crises along with population explosion in Ethiopia, which is a triple jeopardy for Ethiopia in addition to political and economic strangle hold and explotation of the country and its people by TPLF and TPLF affiliated enterprises.

    19. Gojam Zeleke Says:

      This is a completely brilliant paper. One of the propaganda that has been consistently disseminated by TPLF since 1991 is that if it loses power Ethiopia will disintegrate and there would not be future for the country.

      The realty is Ethiopia has been destroyed since 1991. Therefore what awaits us is the rebuilding of the nation as we want it to be. In other words, since this is the lowest point of our existence, nothing can get us lower than this. The future can ONLY be bright and as Professor Alemayehu has brilliantly put it can only be as bright as we want it to be.

      Thank you Professor Al. I am eagerly waiting the next part of your paper.

      Gojam Zeleke.

    20. kaki Says:

      What kind of unity do we want? For genuine unity, MEDREK will be a good start. Reasons to follow.

      I strongly believe that the problem of Ethopian politics will be solved by compromise. why? becuse our politics involves two extremes. this is bold fact. no need to explain.

      By compromise, i mean that we will have a unified country but also we will guarantee those who oppose unity. MEDREK promised to keep the country united and allow oromigna(reasonable) to be national language. what is bad here? nothing. who will be hurt because oromigna is national language? no one. I even would like to start learning the language.

      my question to people like ‘aha’ is that where is the compromise in political groups like AEUP? do they really represent the current Ethiopia? I dont think so. aha, i know you alway nudge MEDREK in any of your comments but I dont think you are in the right track. Forces of integration - what kind of integration? MEDREK are forces of integration because they have defined how they will integrate genuinely. you never mention how best to integrate Ethiopia through AEUP except talking about Integration. My advice(if i can) to aha is be practical not ideal in what you say. Any kind of Integration with out the involvement of Majority of Ethiopian people is bumpy if not fatal. MEDREK represents the majority which is not difficult to see.

    21. aha! Says:

      Kaki! My approach is based on inductive logic for solving the political, economic strangle hold and exploitation and environmental crises along with population explosion that Prof. Al pointed cited, where the first two has been caused by TPLF and TPLF affiliated enterprises and the second the TPLF/eprdf regime has done nothing to mitigate the environmental crises. Based on the existing political models, we have TPLF/eprdf, Tigrai Harena/FDD, KAEUP, EPRP and others. You may perceive as I and the silent majority in Ethiopia understand that the newly formed coalition with Tigrai Harena at the helm is nothing but a mirror image for TPLF/eprdf regime with ethnic agenda as their basic platform. That is undeniable fact and the title in their emblem is EFDR. That said you have two forces at play: the positive forces of integration and the negative forces of disintegration. When the pre-conditions for elections which are under negotiations by KAEUP are implemented and Code of Ethics legislated to enhance a fair and free election, then these two forces will copete at level plain field by free individuals unfettered by TPLF/eprdf regime.

      Where does your idea of compromise fit in the above alignment of political models prevalent in Ethiopia. I know this compromise ideaof yours was presented in the platform of Medrek in the form of campaign promise, to say the least Medrek, which was poised for election prior to the Code of Conduct conference refused to participate in the conference, and yet want to have a bilateral conference with TPLF/eprdf regime, outside 65 other parties that endorsed the Code of Conduct agreements.

      All the Ethiopians a fair and free election prevails to tilt the balance from the negative forces of disintegration to the positive forces of integration, unless your thinking awakwardly to create a hybrid by your compromise solution of two opposing forces, where the result through a democratic process will result in an equilibrium or tilt towards the positive forces of integration to reintstate the Unity, Teritorial Integrity, Sovereignity of Ethiopia and Ethiopians by redrafting the constitution.

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