Crisis Group - Africa Report N°153, 4 September 2009 — The Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia’s political system. The regime transformed the hitherto centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The intent was to create a more prosperous, just and representative state for all its people. Yet, despite continued economic growth and promised democratisation, there is growing discontent with the EPRDF’s ethnically defined state and rigid grip on power and fears of continued inter-ethnic conflict. The international community should take Ethiopia’s governance problems much more seriously and adopt a more principled position towards the government. Without genuine multi-party democracy, the tensions and pressures in Ethiopia’s polities will only grow, greatly increasing the possibility of a violent eruption that would destabilise the country and region.
The endeavour to transform Ethiopia into a federal state is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has dominated the coalition of ethno-nationalist parties that is the EPRDF since the removal in 1991 of the Derg, the security services committee that overthrew Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974. The EPRDF quickly institutionalised the TPLF’s policy of people’s rights to self-determination and self-rule. The federal constitution ratified in 1994 defined the country’s structure as a multicultural federation based on ethno-national representation.
The government has created nine ethnic-based regional states and two federally administered city-states. The result is an asymmetrical federation that combines populous regional states like Oromiya and Amhara in the central highlands with sparsely populated and underdeveloped ones like Gambella and Somali. Although the constitution vests all powers not attributed to the federal government in them, the regional states are in fact weak.
The constitution was applauded for its commitment to liberal democracy and respect for political freedoms and human rights. But while the EPRDF promises democracy, it has not accepted that the opposition is qualified to take power via the ballot box and tends to regard the expression of differing views and interests as a form of betrayal. Before 2005, its electoral superiority was ensured by the limited national appeal and outreach of the predominantly ethnically based opposition parties. Divided and disorganised, the reach of those parties rarely went beyond Addis Ababa. When the opposition was able to challenge at local, regional or federal levels, it faced threats, harassment and arrest. With the opportunity in 2005 to take over the Addis Ababa city council in what would have been the first democratic change of a major administration in the country’s history, the opposition withdrew from the political process to protest flaws in the overall election.
The EPRDF did not feel threatened until the 2005 federal and regional elections. The crackdown that year on the opposition demonstrated the extent to which the regime is willing to ignore popular protest and foreign criticism to hold on to power. The 2008 local and by-elections went much more smoothly, in large part because the opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) was absorbed with internal and legal squabbles, and several other parties withdrew after their candidates experienced severe registration problems. The next federal and regional elections, scheduled for June 2010, most probably will be much more contentious, as numerous opposition parties are preparing to challenge the EPRDF, which is likely to continue to use its political machine to retain its position.
Despite the EPRDF’s authoritarianism and reluctance to accept genuine multi-party competition, political positions and parties have proliferated in recent years. This process, however, is not driven by democratisation or the inclusion of opposition parties in representative institutions. Rather it is the result of a continuous polarisation of national politics that has sharpened tensions between and within parties and ethnic groups since the mid-1990s. The EPRDF’s ethnic federalism has not dampened conflict, but rather increased competition among groups that vie over land and natural resources, as well as administrative boundaries and government budgets.
Furthermore, ethnic federalism has failed to resolve the “national question”. The EPRDF’s ethnic policy has empowered some groups but has not been accompanied by dialogue and reconciliation. For Amhara and national elites, ethnic federalism impedes a strong, unitary nation-state. For ethno-national rebel groups like the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front; Somalis in the Oga den) and OLF (Oromo Liberation Front; the Oromo), ethnic federalism remains artificial. While the concept has failed to accommodate grievances, it has powerfully promoted ethnic self-awareness among all groups. The international community has ignored or downplayed all these problems. Some donors appear to consider food security more important than democracy in Ethiopia, but they neglect the increased ethnic awareness and tensions created by the regionalisation policy and their potentially explosive consequences.
September 5th, 2009 at 8:19 am
Thank You EMF for posting the report. I enjoyed it like Demise Damitie’s Foot Boll Report. It is a good record and analysis of events and views. The bottom Line of the analysis of the report is:
“…..But overall it has powerfully promoted ethnic self-awareness among all groups. Although the current federal system may need to be modified, it is unlikely Ethiopia can return to the old unitary state system.”
This is what I have been trying to let those who are dreaming of unconditional unity. In my email to Prof. Messay, in response to his recent article posted on ER and EMF, I said the following:
“The challenge to us is that unity has been imposed so far, resulting in mistrust, anger and rebellion. Those who stood against forced unity have paid their wealth, lives and opportunities at least for decades. Moreover, we must realise that the balance of power is continuously shifting and situations are changing. I only recently came out of Ethiopia after more than 20 years of experience through out the country. I have firsthand knowledge of the sentiment of the ordinary Oromos (eastern, southern, central and western part of Ethiopia ) and Ogadenees of today. That is what concerns me more than what OLF or ONLF could do as an armed group. I can say that the hearts of these people are already separated from the rest of the country.
The challenge is: how can these people trust us if we try to preach unconditional unity with promises of democratic rights? What makes us different from the previous regimes; that imposed unity in the name of modernization? Can we win the confidence of the people? I think that those who are questioning unity have some genuine reasons. However, the fact that they are questioning doesn’t mean that they are against unity. At times it seems that they are talking about strong foundation for genuine unity, like foundations of equality, respect, love, etc.
Therefore, it would be unwise to be unwilling to negotiate with these people. Confidence building requires time and interaction. We can not build confidence by making strong arguments. We only need to plan for a process (road map) where we can build confidence across ethnic groups and among political groups.”
Having same view is not a requirement for unity. The requirement for unity is respecting differences. Unity of Ethiopia is questioned by its own citizens for some reasons, reflected in the views of Millions of Ethiopians. It would be unwise to undermine these views by labelling them as the views of few elites or the Western Educated or EPRP educated or other.
We do not need any condition to work with OLF and ONLF. We do not have time to waste. We are at quarter to five. Even though the report has an advisory to the international community, what can we expect the international community to do without us? The whole problem as well as the solution is in the hearts of all Ethiopians, not in the hands of the international community. The international community could not achieve unity in Somalia, because the Somalis have no respect for each others view and they have been divided in their heart. We can not expect a different thing for Ethiopia. Darkness is coming over Ethiopia as we are promoting hate and disrespect. If things continue for the next few years the way they are today, we will see….
My disappointment is that people whom I have been expecting to play a role of intermediary, to bring everybody together, keep on building their own different idea and philosophy. What Ethiopia needs is not the best idea. What it needs is the role of wise men (respected Shimagles) able to respect everybody’s view (regardless of ethnicity, ideology, or any other identity) and are able to preach respect to each other.
May God Save Ethiopia
September 5th, 2009 at 10:43 am
The author has made its foot print, when he stated that,”The international community has ignored or down played all these problems”, meaning ethnic and seccessionist politics, and then goes on to say “their
potentially explosive consequences”. While this shows a very good insight by a foreign correspondent, and it might not be of much concern to foreign governments, it fires back at the factions with ethnic and seccessionist agenda, and leaders endorsing the Charter in the first palce, and the oblivious Diaspora corting the newly formed coalition, Medrek, including UDJP, the loyalist opposition parties and Tigrai Harena as mirror image of TPLF/eprdf. With this kind of alignment and foreign diplomats coaxing them to dicuss about the 2010 election without the 7-point precondition being met before election, is not only down playing, but it is Dejavu all over again. And it is unthinkable for the libration fronts to come out of their primitive style of ethnic conflicts and join hands with the positive forces of integration to reverse the multi-layered, hierachical of which ethnic fedralism is the second sub-model of the TPLF/eprdf polical model as I stipulated previously in this forum.
The political crises, where the ethnic and seccessionist politics at the center of it and the economic problems will be resolved by amending and ratifying the constitution, and the class struggle through a democratic revolutionary process and the parliament with a plan to develop the country along ecological zones accross federated states to the benefit of all ethnic groups, without having to accelarate ethnic conflicts over resources and dominance of one over another based on population size or by ethnic minority.
In the past, what ever government came to power worked for the national interest than for ethnic agenda, and defended the country together against external enemies, now it is time to stick together to reverse the course of disintegration or the “potential explosive consequences” as the author of this article put it, leaving ethnic and seccessionist agenda aside for moment to coalesce around the national agenda, until a democratic system of government is established through the vote of free individuals, where they could openly campaign for their ethnic agenda, instead of going up in arms in the bush.
September 5th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
HIS EXCELLENCY PRIME MINITER MELESE ZENAWI YOU AND YOUR TEAM ARE DOING EXCELLENT JOB FOR ETHIOPIA AND CURRENTLY FOR AFRICA AT LARGE, GOD BLESS YOU, HISTORY WILL JUDGE YOU GAYS, I CAN’T COUNT THE GOOD DID YOU GAYS ARE DOING BUT AS A POSITVE FEEDBACK, AS A CONCERNED ETHIOPIAN , I LOVE TO SAY ONE THING AND THE MAGOR MISTAKE HAVE TO REVISE BY YOUR TEAM (EPRDF),
WHICH IS ETHINIC BASED POLITICS AND PARTY , IT MAY HELP FOR TIME BEING YOU GAYS ARE TO STAY IN POWER, OTHERWISE IT DOESN’T CREATE A STRONG, PROSPEROUS ETHIOPIA AND IT DOESN’T SAFE GAURD NATIONS AND NATIONALITES RIGHT AND EQUALITY, INSTEAD IT WEAKENS THE NATION. NOW YOU GAYS ARE NOT IN THE ERA OF BUILDING A TIGRAY TIGRGNE RPUBLIC.
GOD BLESS ALL ETHIOPIANS.
September 6th, 2009 at 5:16 am
Minale! What is forced upon the Ethiopians is ethnic and seccessioninist agenda, which a divide and rule, apartheid policy, that dnies individual freedom of all ethnic groups. Unity of Ethiopia and freedom of Ethiopians, territorial integrity of an organic entity , called Ethiopia is not negotiable. As of of now there is what understand a peacefull and /or armed struggle to achieve those objectives. Get out of your head this false premise of unconditional unity at the present, which does not exist and forced unity of the past, which is not unique to Ethiopia to consolidate the feudal kings under one rule, as it was the case with Germany and other countries. What is needed is not breaking the country into nine pieces instead of 80 pieces with defined boundries if at all one could avoid infighitng over resources, including Ethio-Eritrea border dispute and create a dominance by the minorty ethnic group to have economic and political strangle hold of the country. The only salient point you are trying to impress us is your personal assessment about the inclination of Oromos and ONLF in terms of ethnic and seccessionist politics.
Why don’t you respond to the article at hand to justify your point?
September 6th, 2009 at 11:35 am
No surprise, Only European colonizers and Abyssinians villify the question of nations in Africa as some thing “ethnic”. None of them dare to call European nations as such. Any ways, we can persuade Abeshas, but we will wait till the Europeans change their negative attitude on nations in Africa. Can they tell me why Germans can be called as a nation and Oromos be an ethny? Enjoy here:
“Persuading Amhara elites to accept and respect Self-determination
It is clear that only Amhara elites and few Amharanized elites from other nations are against “ethnic” federalism and self-determination of nations. Genuine “ethnic” federalism is the compromise solution for all nations in the region to live together - achieving both national independence and regional integration. The position of Amhara elites regarding the federalism and self-determination made them to be not suitable to cooperate with the elites of other nations against TPLF regime. Amhara elites do prefer unconditional Ethiopian unity rather than self-determination as a precondition for the possible alliance to be forged between Amhara democratic forces and Oromo freedom fighters. Oromos tend to accept this precondition, only if Amhara elites also accept Oromos’ precondition aka making Afaan Oromo the only working language of the federation instead of Amharinya. Oromo elites make such a demand to make Amhara elites to notice how wrong is their cry for unity with Amharinya as the only federal language. Then, in a common house aka “NEW Ethiopia” they suggest to build, the working language must be only Afaan Oromo. Will they then stay to be pro Ethiopian unity and anti ethnicity, even if Amharinya will be demoted to only local language of Amhara region and if Afaan Oromo will be promoted to be the only working language of the Ethiopian federation? I am sure they will not! In case they will stay further to be pro-Ethiopianity and pro-unity as they seem to believe now, let’s then try this NEW version of Ethiopianity with Afaan Oromo instead of with Amharinya.
Read more:
http://www.ethioplanet.com/medrek
In short, the best instrument to compel Amhara elites so that they accept and respect the compromise solution aka genuine “ethnic” federalism and to make them recognize the right of nations to self-determination is to demote Amharinya to be the local language and promote Afaan Oromo to be the federal language, i.e a transformation of the empire to a NEW Ethiopia with Afaan Oromo as the National Language!”
September 7th, 2009 at 2:03 am
Ogina! The working language of AFD is English, a colonial language as if Ethiopians do not have an Official language; its is not Amharic or Affaan Oromo or somali. You incessantly, repeat the same line,” Amahara elites” vs. Oromo freedom fighters, “Afaan Oromo as working language instead of Amaharigna”, “self-determination as a precondition for the alliance between Amhara democratic forces and Oromo “freedom” fighters”, where the term freedom fighters refers to liberation fighters, from the colonizer Ethiopia. While ethnic federalism and the right to seccession, upto independence is already in place, not only OLF, but also ONLF are engaged in armed conflict with TPLF/eprdf sposored by EPLF/Eritrea and as far as the amed confict is concerened there is an alliance called AFD, among ONLF, OLF, EPPF, and possibly now with Ginbot 7, with English as medium of communication. I do not see your plea to form an alliance with Amahara democratic forces/elites as you sometimes alude to, that do not represent neither the Amhara ethnic group, nor the other ethnic groups who are comfortable with maintaining Amharic language as a working language, while they have the opportunity to develop their language locally. Why do you think they will choose Afaan Oromo over Amharic. When you refer to Amhara elites, are you including the 32 million+ in the region, apart from those spread over the country.
Your plea for forming alliance after self determination could serve well the EPLF/Eritrea and EPPF to topple the TPLF/eprdf regime to become part of the federated states of Ethiopia, the border question and the question of sea outlet will disappear.
Your argument puts you in the camp of negative forces of disintegration, you might as well negotiate your question of self-determination with TPLF/eprdf, a question that has been lingering for the last forty years drafted the elites liberation movements, such as TPLF, EPLF, OLF and ONLF. Or you might bring it up in a democratic process, when the the positive forces of integration take over power by election. Until then, you are barking at the wrong tree.
September 7th, 2009 at 10:42 am
ogina i dont understand why you gus thinking stil on racist basses,we ETHIOPIAN’S ones start using on wide range Amharic language that any other languge in ethiopia for civil service.Still this languge spreading on even our timely event technology fasilities such as computor net work like other international language.becuase of your worest hatrait and disrespect for amhara poeple you just reflacting your idiot mentality by the name of innocent oromo poeple please come back to your natural identity.stop hiding your selfish interest and ask forgivenes from Ethiopians the oromo poeple does not represent your idia.wake up and stand up together with Ethiopian’s.
September 7th, 2009 at 10:45 am
ogina i dont understand why you guys thinking stil on racist basses,we ETHIOPIAN’S ones start using on wide range Amharic language than any other languge.In Ethiopia for civil service.Still this languge spreading on our timely event technology fasilities such as computor net work like other international language.becuase of your worest hatrait and disrespect for amhara poeple you just reflacting your idiot mentality by the name of innocent oromo poeple please come back to your natural identity.stop hiding your selfish interest and ask forgivenes from Ethiopians the oromo poeple does not represent your idia.wake up and stand up together with Ethiopian’s.
September 7th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Did I give a chance for a fly to jump on the dirty thing (conflict between Amhara and Oromo)? Here is one fly aka rabid dog aka Weyane cadre farting being camouflaged as conservative Amhara cursing “Galla”! I know the moment I post such “conflict” situation between Amharas and Oromos, the flies jump on the dirty thing they are waiting for!! My intention of posting the above opinion was not to give the flies such chance, but to remind Amhara elites how wrong they are in refusing to accept and respect the right of nations to self-determination including the right of Amharas and Tegarus! Let the flies fart, shit and vomit, but there will never be a conflict between Amharas and Oromos! The time of instigating a conflict between these two BIG nations, so that the fascists rule further, is over!!
September 7th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
The author started by saying “… The intent was to create a more prosperous, just and representative state for all its people. Yet, despite continued economic growth…” Though the rest of the article clearly shows the dark side of the regime, I completely disagree with the above assertion. I wish it is removed from the article right away as we all know what the intention of Meles when he created ethnic based regions. I also disagree with the “continued economic growth…”. If you measure growth by mushrooming substandard buildings and roads may be we may agree but if we take the broad meaning of economic growth, we are actually going behind. The most important aspect of growth is the standard living of the society. And we all know what the status is in the last 18 years!
September 8th, 2009 at 3:55 am
What is the meaning of talking all day long about such ridiculous issue, race.We, most Ethiopians are concerned now about our daily bread.so let time answer our question for political freedom, ethnic equality and economic growth.
Talking about our racial difference will spill an oil on a fire.The Ethiopians really angry and hungry at this time are willing to be very dangerous and chaotic.Racism may trigger a fight with in the country,especially in the coming election period ,2010. Being so worried about what may happen is not the solution but to let it happen if it can bring any change for betterment of the country.People were sacrificed before and so many of us are willing to be sacrificed for the better Ethiopia.It seems there is a need of more blood shed to bring good governance which lead to economic growth and most of all which brings love among the Ethiopian nations and nationalities.